How much will we sell over the next few months? Every SME needs an answer to this question before it orders materials, plans staff or approves investments. A sales forecast is not a crystal ball but a traceable calculation based on open sales opportunities. This guide shows how to create a sales forecast, which three methods of calculation there are, how to check the assumptions against your own figures and which mistakes distort a forecast most often. It is about method; there is no law for it, just proven practice.
What a sales forecast is and is not
A sales forecast estimates which order value is expected to be won in which period. It works with open deals, that is, with probabilities, not with commitments. Three terms need to be kept apart:
- Pipeline value: the sum of the values of all open sales opportunities. This is the upper limit, not the expectation.
- Weighted value: each sales opportunity multiplied by its closing probability. This is the usual measure of expectation.
- Won value (actual): what has actually been closed as won. It is used for comparison with the forecast.
A forecast is neither revenue nor income in the accounts, and a won sales opportunity is not yet an invoice or a payment. Financial accounting follows its own principles; among other things, it must be prudent (Art. 958c, para. 1 no. 5 of the Code of Obligations (CO)). The forecast belongs in planning. How won orders later turn into incoming payments is shown in the guide Cash flow planning for SMEs. The SECO SME portal names liquidity shortages as a frequent cause of bankruptcies and recommends liquidity planning that is as accurate as possible.
The data basis: what every sales opportunity needs
A forecast is only as good as the entries behind it. For each sales opportunity you need five details:
- Expected value in francs or euros, separated by currency (francs and euros are never added together).
- Stage in the sales process, honestly describing where the opportunity stands.
- Probability, either taken from the stage or deliberately adjusted.
- Expected closing date, ideally a specific date.
- Next step: an opportunity without a planned step is usually not an active opportunity.
Decide beforehand who maintains these details, and check them in a fixed meeting. Forecasts rarely fail because of the calculation but because of outdated data.
Method 1: the weighted pipeline
You assign a probability to each stage and multiply it by the value. An example of a simple ladder of stages (assumptions, to be adapted to your business):
| Stage | Probability |
|---|---|
| New | 10 % |
| Contacted | 25 % |
| Quote | 50 % |
| Negotiation | 75 % |
A quote worth CHF 24’000 in the “Quote” stage then contributes CHF 12’000 to the forecast. Advantage: the method is simple and traceable. Weakness: all opportunities in a stage are treated alike, although they are not. You should therefore be able to adjust the probability of an individual opportunity when you know more, for example with a verbal commitment or a competitor in the running. How a quote is structured is shown in the guide Write a quote.
Method 2: the forecast by closing month
The weighted pipeline tells you how much you expect, but not when. The forecast by closing month distributes the opportunities across the month of expected closing and shows, for each month, the number, the total, the weighted value and, for comparison, the value already won (actual). Two groups do not belong in the future and should be shown separately:
- Overdue opportunities, whose expected closing falls before the current month. Either the date is out of date, or the opportunity is dead.
- Opportunities without a closing date. They cannot be assigned to any month.
Both groups are a maintenance task, not a forecast value.
Method 3: checking the assumptions against your own rate
The stage values above are assumptions. Check them against your own history (practice, not a legal rule):
- Win rate: won deals divided by all closed deals (won plus lost) in a period, calculated by number. If you won 22 of 60 closed deals last year, the win rate is 36.7 per cent.
- Conversion by stage: of the deals that reached a stage, how many moved on afterwards? This is not the same as the closing probability, but it is a good indication of bottlenecks.
- Time per stage and time to close: how long does an opportunity stay in a stage on average, and how long does a deal take from creation to win? A closing date that is much closer than your usual duration is suspicious.
If your stage values are clearly above what your closings of recent months show, the forecast is too optimistic. Lower the values until forecast and actuals match over several months.
Common mistakes
- Wish dates: closing dates that reflect the team’s wishes instead of the customer’s plans.
- Zombie opportunities: old opportunities without a next step that inflate the pipeline.
- Mixing currencies: francs and euros in one total produce a number that nobody understands.
- One big opportunity carries everything: rule of thumb: a single opportunity of more than a third of the weighted total turns the forecast into a bet. Show it separately.
- Confusing forecast with liquidity: even a won order pays out only after performance, invoice and payment term.
- No look back: anyone who never compares what they expected three months ago does not improve their assumptions.
Practical example: Muster Stahlbau AG
Muster Stahlbau AG (fictitious) reviews its forecast for the coming months on 27 October 2026. An order worth CHF 15’000 has already been won in October. The open sales opportunities and their probabilities (stage value, adjusted to 90 per cent for the hall maintenance):
| Opportunity | Stage | Probability | Value CHF | Expected closing | Weighted CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esche practice conversion | Negotiation | 75 % | 30’000 | 15.09.2026 | 22’500 |
| Hall maintenance | Negotiation | 90 % | 12’500 | 30.10.2026 | 11’250 |
| Seeblick office conversion | Negotiation | 75 % | 48’000 | 15.12.2026 | 36’000 |
| Linde service subscription | Quote | 50 % | 24’000 | 10.12.2026 | 12’000 |
| Tanne garage new build | Quote | 50 % | 60’000 | 20.01.2027 | 30’000 |
| Föhre law firm renovation | Contacted | 25 % | 36’000 | 31.01.2027 | 9’000 |
| Trade fair stand enquiry | New | 10 % | 20’000 | 15.02.2027 | 2’000 |
| Buche hall roof | Quote | 50 % | 8’000 | no date | 4’000 |
By closing month, the forecast looks like this:
| Month | Open opportunities | Total CHF | Weighted CHF | Won (actual) CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overdue | 1 | 30’000 | 22’500 | – |
| October 2026 | 1 | 12’500 | 11’250 | 15’000 |
| December 2026 | 2 | 72’000 | 48’000 | – |
| January 2027 | 2 | 96’000 | 39’000 | – |
| February 2027 | 1 | 20’000 | 2’000 | – |
| No closing date | 1 | 8’000 | 4’000 | – |
| Total open | 8 | 238’500 | 126’750 |
The pipeline value is CHF 238’500, the weighted value CHF 126’750. Of this, CHF 22’500 (overdue) and CHF 4’000 (no date) are not reliable. The adjusted expectation for October to February is CHF 100’250 (126’750 minus 22’500 minus 4’000). Management clarifies the Esche conversion by telephone and sets a date for the Buche hall roof.
As a cross-check: the weighted pipeline assumes 53 per cent on average (126’750 of 238’500). The win rate of the last 365 days is 36.7 per cent (22 of 60). The win rate counts all closed deals, including those lost in early stages. Open deals in late stages may therefore be weighted higher than the win rate. A gap of about 16 percentage points is large enough, however, to check the 50 per cent of the Quote stage with the “Conversion by stage” tile.
Checklist
- Every open opportunity has value, currency, stage and expected closing
- Every open opportunity has a next step with a date
- Overdue and undated opportunities are cleaned up or shown separately
- Stage probabilities are compared with your own win rate
- Individual opportunities with special knowledge have an adjusted probability
- Currencies are not mixed
- Large individual opportunities are shown separately
- The forecast is discussed at a fixed rhythm
- Forecast and actuals are compared after the month ends
How KMU | base helps
Sales | base calculates the forecast from the deals you maintain anyway. There is no second table that can deviate.
1. Record deals completely. In the Sales menu, open Deals and create an opportunity with expected value, currency and “Expected close”. Leave the “Probability (%)” field empty if the stage probability should apply; otherwise enter the value. Pipeline value and forecast calculate with it (“Probability per deal”). You set the stage values under Sales settings › Pipeline and lists.
2. View by month. In Deals, switch to “Forecast” at the top. The columns show the months of expected closing, plus “Overdue” and “No date”. If you drag a card into a month, Sales | base sets the closing to the last day of that month (“Forecast by closing month”).
3. Forecast in the dashboard. Under Management › Analytics, the “Forecast” tile shows, for each month, the open deals, total, weighted value and won value (actual) (“Forecast”), separately for francs and euros (“Totals per currency to the cent”). You select the period, person and pipeline; you show, hide and rearrange tiles (“Dashboard with freely arrangeable tiles”).
4. Check the assumptions. The “Key figures” tile (win rate) and the “Conversion by stage”, “Time per stage” and “Time to close” tiles supply the figures for method 3 (“Sales funnel, win rate, time per stage, loss reasons”).
Limits. Sales | base calculates the forecast from the current state each time it is opened; there is no saved state for a later comparison with actuals. Record it yourself. The dashboard note names the stage probability as the weighting; the deal’s own probability is what counts if you have entered one. Categories such as “commit” or “best case” do not exist, and a deal’s pipeline value is an expectation, not a receivable and not an invoice. You see only the deals you are allowed to see.
The details of operation are in the Sales | base guide. If you would like to try it yourself, take a look at the Demo or open a test account. If you have questions, we will help you via the contact page. You will find the terms under Pricing.
Sources
- SECO SME portal: Stay solvent through cash flow planning (in German; page without a date), accessed on 27.10.2026.
- Code of Obligations (CO, OR, SR 220), Art. 958c, para. 1, as at 1 October 2026: fedlex.admin.ch (German original), accessed on 27.10.2026.
The methods in this guide (weighted pipeline, win rate, closing month) are business practice, not legal requirements.
This guide does not replace legal or tax advice. Information as at 27.10.2026.